Prelude to War (?)

[Relyt]

You guys (and gals) may or may not have heard of the sudden sinking of the South Korean corvette (corvette is an ASW (Anti Submarine Warfare) navy ship designed to patrol coastal waters) in the waters off North Korea. Evidence is piling up that suggest that the corvette, the Cheonan, was sunk by a submarine-launched torpedo. Intelligence also reports that North Korean submarines were patrolling in the same area of the sinking.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/southkorea/7746017/Korean-stand-off-Stealthy-mission-that-has-brought-neighbours-close-to-war.html

I am completely serious when I say this could lead to World War III.

[Commandingtripod]

Perhaps, there's still questions being asked whether it actually was a North Korean sub. However, if it really was a North Korean ship, I find it unlikely a war, let alone World War III would commence. Any war is going to serious damage South Korea's economy which makes everyone paranoid, in any case I doubt they'd roll out against NK without America's backing, and to be honest I'm not sure Obama would be willing to take America into a third war, with Iraq and Afghanistan still going. Besides which, both countries have been shooting at each other with their ships before, and that would have been more than enough for either to go to war against each other.

[Relyt]

That's the question. The two nations have had incidents before, but a nation can only be provoked but so many times. Because of this, the Korean war, which began in 1949, has technically not ended. Also, South Korea is among my nation's most important allies, including Britain, Canada, Taiwan, Japan, and others. The sinking has angered many South Koreans, which means there is a possibility (I'm not saying probability) that it will escalate into open conflict. Also, North Korea is allied with China, and still loosely allied with Russia. North Korea has proven to be reckless, which may mean that its government will not hesitate to use its nuclear weapons as much as another nation would hesitate. As soon as it launched a nuclear weapon in anger, I can assure you that would bring the United States into the conflict, despite Iraq and Afghanistan. The launch of nuclear weapons would, however, be less likely if we were to station a handful of our Ohio class ballistic missile submarines (SSBN's) offshore of North Korea. But supposing that North Korea does launch, nuclear war means world war. Again, I'm not saying there will be war, but peace is no longer assured if North Korea is behind the sinking.

Huh. On a lighter note, I haven't heard anything about the situation in Iraq for several months. No news, but I wonder if that's good news?

Okay, after reading this ( www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/05/21/south.korea.clinton.warship/?hpt=Sbin ), China surprisingly is no longer allied with North Korea. That's a good sign, but the article I just gave the link to states that the United States is obligated by treaty to assist South Korea in time of war with North Korea.

[Lonesome Crow]

I can't see it escalating beyond a local spitting contest.

[Relyt]

Well, who knows. War and peace can both be very unpredictable.

[richardburton]

Hopefully it won't lead to anything more serious. It shouldn't do, but you never know.

[mrgrotey]

WWIII will never happen, there is far too much power behind the big guns of the world to act as a deterant. The day it starts will be the last day any of us will see. And because of that it wont happen.

[Relyt]

I think that's pretty much what everyone was saying directly after November 1918. There are always those who care nothing for the survival of our species.

[richardburton]

I see the from the news today that the controversy is in no way diminishing and N Korea are not backing down one inch.

[Relyt]

We'll see if they won't back down once that American task force arrives. It's the usual kind of force: one aircraft carrier escorted by destroyers and frigates (and possibly a missile cruiser) as well as having one or two nuclear attack submarines, as well as containing some supply ships. North Korea's best response to this, in naval vessels, is a handful of old frigates, special forces submarines, and its fleet of Soviet Romeo class submarines, which date back to the 1950's. So yes, we'll see if this doesn't intimidate them into submission.

On a lighter note, North Korea is easily aggravated. A few months ago, the US military set up anti-missile defense systems on Hawaii. North Korea stated that this was an act of aggression. Sometimes I wonder if they really thought installing defense systems on our own territory as an act of war, or if they had nothing better to do. Needless to say, they were the only ones who lashed out against the US for this.